Why Climatic predictions
are important to farmers?
Climatic
forecasts are becoming an important
topic with the modern climatic turbulences due to various reasons like global warming.
The both scientific and traditional weather forecasting methods are being used all
over the world to disseminate information which is important
and beneficial for the most vulnerable sectors like agriculture. Farmers must
become adept to anticipating climate changes and variations and finding ways of
adapting to these changes. Farmers adept is depends on quality
of information relating to climate predictions that fulfill needs of decision
maker. This is especially important considering the increased frequency of the
extreme weather events that we are experiencing and will experience in coming
decades. Climate prediction information can be utilized by crop and livestock
producers and agribusinesses to adapt to and minimize the impact of changing
weather patterns and adverse weather events.
Multifarious weather
forecasting systems
Scientists
and meteorologists more rely on scientific methods like analogue method,
teleconnection method, probabilistic weather forecast methods etc, in the same
time rural farmers rely on their cultural and indigenous knowledge as well in
addition to this scientific weather forecasting information. Due to the
importance of existing knowledge of
local people some countries have also linked the existing indigenous
knowledge also in to their forecasting systems with the expectation of better
adoption practices and prevention of climatic damages as a national policy.
Research actions and
study programs
In this regard , Government funded projects
and non government funded projects have triumphed to link the particular two weather forecasting
methods and come up with policy recommendations in some countries of the world.
This article discuss a such triumphs
and policy recommendations especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America
where a number of studies have been done
by various parties.
Such studies were carried out under the Regional
Climate Change Adaptation Knowledge Platform for Asia (AKP), in 13 Asian
countries to evaluate adaptation needs, engage with policy-makers, planners and
practitioners at the national, sub-national and local levels, and interact
directly with communities through case studies and pilot projects. The study
shows the importance of local knowledge in identifying appropriate adaptation
actions. In this regard traditional practices, self-directed local responses to
climate impacts, like farmers’ actions to diversify their crops are important
components. Thus the policy recommendations were made to overcome the existing
considerable knowledge gaps in particular countries, by advising to the Governments and external funders to focus on scientific
researches including downscaling of climate models and conducting local-level
researches to capture the observations of farmers, fishermen, forest
communities, etc and incorporate them
together to cater to the information needs .
Studies
in Latin America have revealed that traditional knowledge is compatible with
scientific knowledge disregarding its local nature which includes techniques
that are capable of meeting the challenges of climate change expected over the coming
decades. Traditional knowledge and technologies from Latin America has proven its
usability with modern science and in many cases. As an example, traditional
water management systems, such as amunas,
can be implemented along with modern irrigation technology to cultivate both
native and improved crop varieties in Latin America. Therefore, traditional
knowledge has the potential of contributing towards the
climate change adaptation processes .It should be participated in the adaptation
strategy design and implementation. However, social exclusion, lack of
information systems and poor attention and protection from governments have caused
to the slow erosion of traditional knowledge slowly. Thus , the study emphasizes the importance of
having a government policy to incorporate traditional knowledge and
technologies into climate change
adaptation practices. For the conservation of this knowledge, they recommend
further integration of this knowledge into climate change adaptation
strategies, including establishing adequate and appropriate legal frameworks to
protect the intellectual property rights of indigenous communities. Never the
less as a fact, indigenous knowledge provides information for a specific region.
Thus, this study shows the applicability of local knowledge for the development
of locally-appropriate, low-cost climate change adaptation strategies. Some
indigenous knowledge may not be applicable in other regions however, though it
could be transferable to areas where similar geography and cultures exist.
Similar
researches have conducted in Africa also show the same conclusions and
recommendations for the policy makers. ASSAR is such research activity undertaken in the semi-arid regions of
Africa and Asia, which considered the dynamics and drivers of vulnerability,
while exploring ways to enhance the resilience of people, local organizations
and governments. ASSAR emphasize the importance of Traditional authorities and
religious institutions as credible sources for mobilizing actions on
adaptation. Thus their policy recommendations were, successful in
cooperating strategies that local communities use to respond to climate change
need to be taken into consideration in the design of national adaptation
processes and climate interventions that do not align with people’s needs may
be unsuitable.
Sri Lankan weather
forecasting practices
Sri
Lankan farmers also have their own weather forecasting patterns and senses as
any other farmer. Their adaptations are basically back by observations in
nature and indigenous knowledge. This knowledge has been used throughout the
history. But due to the current climatic turbulences, Sri Lankan farmers face
vulnerabilities similar other farmer in the world.
According
to the recent studies, it evidence that Sri Lankan farmers’ perception on local
climate are based on the shared beliefs and perceptions held by village tank
farmers in dry zone. Usually such beliefs based on local weather patterns and
set of local signs that provide clues about upcoming climate events especially
about rain fall. These local weather indicators use to plan their crop calendar
based on two farmer defined seasons called Yala
and Maha . Never the less, the
local weather indicators and sharing beliefs in the tank system are used for adopting and decision making process within
the farming community as community-based adaptation practices. As the local
climatic indicators many observations and events are used. As the events,
farmers expect different types of rain falls and intensities. As an example for
January they expect low intensity rainfall namely Duruthu wehilla which rains continuously throughout the month. Farmer
observations are mainly consisted of observations in nature and animal behavior
changes. As the natural observations, wind direction, speed of winds, cloud
formation patterns, visibility changes, and temperature changes can be
identified. Water level changes and spill patterns of tanks also have been used
especially with their cascade systems. As the animal behavioral changes,
appearance of certain animal, sudden rise in insects, nesting behavior of birds
and migration of some species have been considered. In summary all these things
are good indicators which are very unique and specific to the dry zone. This
local knowledge sources were helped farmers to survive and these kind of specific rain falls have
been identified for the all twelve months by the dry zone farmers.
The
current weather forecasting system doesn’t have policies or actions to grasp farmer’s
indigenous knowledge into the national forecasting system and
farmer adaptation plans. This gap should be addressed by adopting suitable
practices like in particular countries to create a better
adaptability. Predictions are need with longer time scale as well seasonal and
inter-annual
scale. The main arm of climatic information producer ,department of meteorology
should be strengthen in technology, suitable information dissemination methods
and harmonization forecasting practices with local knowledge. This will be
helpful to increase benefits to farmers in many ways, to improve crop yield, to
Improve production input planning (e.g., fertilizers, pesticides, fungicides) to
reduce risk, reduce losses of extreme climate events, to making decisions of
agricultural development plan. Thus it is important to conduct Research on
consensus forecasting methods to disseminate information about the timing,
location and intensity of these climatic changes and events .it will provide
valuable and actionable information to agricultural decision makers to increase
production, reduce risk and mitigate the environmental impacts of these events
and improve the adaptability.
