Bridge the modern climatic forecasts and traditional knowledge to assist the adaptation actions of Sri Lankan farmers: Review of few research actions and their policy recommendations from rest of the world to practice in Sri Lanka. Why Climatic predictions are important to farmers?

Why Climatic predictions are important to farmers?

Climatic forecasts   are becoming an important topic with the modern climatic turbulences due to various reasons like global warming. The both scientific and traditional weather forecasting methods are being used   all over the world to disseminate information which is   important and beneficial for the most vulnerable sectors like agriculture. Farmers must become adept to anticipating climate changes and variations and finding ways of adapting to these changes. Farmers adept is depends on   quality of information relating to climate predictions that fulfill needs of decision maker. This is especially important considering the increased frequency of the extreme weather events that we are experiencing and will experience in coming decades. Climate prediction information can be utilized by crop and livestock producers and agribusinesses to adapt to and minimize the impact of changing weather patterns and adverse weather events. 

Multifarious weather forecasting systems

Scientists and meteorologists more rely on scientific methods like analogue method, teleconnection method, probabilistic weather forecast methods etc, in the same time rural farmers rely on their cultural and indigenous knowledge as well in addition to this scientific weather forecasting information. Due to the importance of existing knowledge of   local people some countries have also linked the existing indigenous knowledge also in to their forecasting systems with the expectation of better adoption practices and prevention of climatic damages as a national policy.

Research actions and study programs

 In this regard , Government funded projects and non government funded projects have triumphed to  link the particular two weather forecasting methods and come up with policy recommendations in some countries of the world. This article discuss a  such   triumphs and policy recommendations     especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America where a  number of studies have been done by various parties.

Such studies were carried out under the Regional Climate Change Adaptation Knowledge Platform for Asia (AKP), in 13 Asian countries to evaluate adaptation needs, engage with policy-makers, planners and practitioners at the national, sub-national and local levels, and interact directly with communities through case studies and pilot projects. The study shows the importance of local knowledge in identifying appropriate adaptation actions. In this regard traditional practices, self-directed local responses to climate impacts, like farmers’ actions to diversify their crops are important components. Thus the policy recommendations were made to overcome the existing considerable knowledge gaps in particular countries, by advising to the  Governments and external funders to focus on scientific researches including downscaling of climate models and conducting local-level researches to capture the observations of farmers, fishermen, forest communities, etc and incorporate  them together to cater to the information needs .

Studies in Latin America have revealed that traditional knowledge is compatible with scientific knowledge disregarding its local nature which includes techniques that are capable of meeting the challenges of climate change expected over the coming decades. Traditional knowledge and technologies from Latin America has proven its usability with modern science and in many cases. As an example, traditional water management systems, such as amunas, can be implemented along with modern irrigation technology to cultivate both native and improved crop varieties in Latin America. Therefore, traditional knowledge   has the potential of contributing towards the climate change adaptation processes .It should be participated in the adaptation strategy design and implementation. However, social exclusion, lack of information systems and poor attention and protection from governments have caused to the slow erosion of traditional knowledge slowly. Thus   , the study emphasizes the importance of having a government policy   to incorporate traditional knowledge and technologies   into climate change adaptation practices. For the conservation of this knowledge, they recommend further integration of this knowledge into climate change adaptation strategies, including establishing adequate and appropriate legal frameworks to protect the intellectual property rights of indigenous communities. Never the less as a fact, indigenous knowledge provides information for a specific region. Thus, this study shows the applicability of local knowledge for the development of locally-appropriate, low-cost climate change adaptation strategies. Some indigenous knowledge may not be applicable in other regions however, though it could be transferable to areas where similar geography and cultures exist.

Similar researches have conducted in Africa also show the same conclusions and recommendations for the policy makers. ASSAR is such research activity    undertaken in the semi-arid regions of Africa and Asia, which considered the dynamics and drivers of vulnerability, while exploring ways to enhance the resilience of people, local organizations and governments. ASSAR emphasize the importance of Traditional authorities and religious institutions as credible sources for mobilizing actions on adaptation. Thus their policy recommendations were, successful in cooperating strategies that local communities use to respond to climate change need to be taken into consideration in the design of national adaptation processes and climate interventions that do not align with people’s needs may be unsuitable.   

Sri Lankan weather forecasting practices

Sri Lankan farmers also have their own weather forecasting patterns and senses as any other farmer. Their adaptations are basically back by observations in nature and indigenous knowledge. This knowledge has been used throughout the history. But due to the current climatic turbulences, Sri Lankan farmers   face vulnerabilities similar other farmer in the world.

According to the recent studies, it evidence that Sri Lankan farmers’ perception on local climate are based on the shared beliefs and perceptions held by village tank farmers in dry zone. Usually such beliefs based on local weather patterns and set of local signs that provide clues about upcoming climate events especially about rain fall. These local weather indicators use to plan their crop calendar based on two farmer defined seasons called Yala and Maha . Never the less,   the local weather indicators and sharing beliefs in the tank system are used for   adopting and decision making process within the farming community as community-based adaptation practices. As the local climatic indicators many observations and events are used. As the events, farmers expect different types of rain falls and intensities. As an example for January they expect low intensity rainfall namely Duruthu wehilla which rains continuously throughout the month. Farmer observations are mainly consisted of observations in nature and animal behavior changes. As the natural observations, wind direction, speed of winds, cloud formation patterns, visibility changes, and temperature changes can be identified. Water level changes and spill patterns of tanks also have been used especially with their cascade systems. As the animal behavioral changes, appearance of certain animal, sudden rise in insects, nesting behavior of birds and migration of some species have been considered. In summary all these things are good indicators which are very unique and specific to the dry zone. This local knowledge sources were helped farmers to survive and     these kind of specific rain falls have been identified for the all twelve months by the dry zone farmers. 

The current weather forecasting system doesn’t have   policies or actions to grasp farmer’s indigenous knowledge   into the national forecasting system and farmer adaptation plans. This gap should be addressed by adopting suitable practices like in   particular countries to create a better adaptability. Predictions are need with longer time scale as well   seasonal and

inter-annual scale. The main arm of climatic information producer ,department of meteorology should be strengthen in technology, suitable information dissemination methods and harmonization forecasting practices with local knowledge. This will be helpful to increase benefits to farmers in many ways, to improve crop yield, to Improve production input planning (e.g., fertilizers, pesticides, fungicides) to reduce risk, reduce losses of extreme climate events, to making decisions of agricultural development plan. Thus it is important to conduct Research on consensus forecasting methods to disseminate information about the timing, location and intensity of these climatic changes and events .it will provide valuable and actionable information to agricultural decision makers to increase production, reduce risk and mitigate the environmental impacts of these events and improve the adaptability.